Transformation of the Russia–Central Asia Migration System amid Twenty-First Century Global Processes: Problems of Modeling

Introduction. The article examines the migration system that has taken shape between Russia and Central Asian states at the turn of the twenty first century. Russian society traditionally associates labor migration with interactions between former Soviet populations. However, recent times have witnessed somewhat a securitization of migration. A possible increase in negative attitudes may lead to ignoring the significance of migration as a needed resource instrumental in maintaining Russia’s geopolitical influence across the region and boosting its socioeconomic development. Goals. The article attempts to determine a migration research model that would closest reflect actual (and supposed) changes in the Russia–Central Asia migration system — for efficient regulation of migration processes and distribution of migration flows. Materials and methods. The analyzed facts and figures have been borrowed from resources of the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia, Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, International Organization for Migration, National Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan, and online research databases. Migration has been considered within the network approach and actor-network theory, which makes it possible to include all material and non-material actors to describe certain transformational changes, their specifics and variability. Results. Shifts in the Russia–Central Asia migration paradigm are caused by a variety of factors as follows: 1) Central Asian republics tend to reorient their foreign policies toward the Middle East, Europe, Americas, and East Asia; 2) The sanctions pressure keeps growing, and ruble exchange rates keep falling. Furthermore, Russian society is experiencing a trend of naturalizing Soviet-born and segregating post-Soviet-born Asian migrants. Meanwhile, the choice of a host country increasingly depends on non-economic factors, such as ecology, social security, interethnic harmony, and availability of migration corridors. The paper also identifies some positive components of international migration. Labor migration is positioned as a necessary resource for the socioeconomic development of contemporary Russia. The publicly proclaimed negative impacts of migrants on Russian society prove objectively groundless. However, migration may (and sometimes does) exacerbate societal risks. Central Asian laborers still perceive Russia as a most economically optimal destination, even given that historical and cultural proximities, shared historical memories, and similar traditions are no longer of primary importance. Conclusions. The conducted analyses of migration process models and the current state of the Russia–Central Asia migration system justify the use of actor-network theory that — for modeling purposes — involves (and emphasizes the significance of) material and non-material, natural-climatic, and cognitive components of migration.

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