Small States in the Changing Global Order: Prospects for Armenia’s Foreign and Security Policy in the New Middle East

Introduction. The ongoing transformation of the global order has significantly altered the security landscape in the South Caucasus and wider — Eurasia, as evidenced by the 2020 Artsakh War and the 2022 Ukraine conflict. Goals. The paper examines how these shifts impact the foreign and security policy planning of small states, with Armenia as a case study. It analyzes the evolving geopolitical environment in the region, focusing on the strategic interests of key actors — Russia, Turkey, the US, and the EU — and their implications for Armenia. The main novelty of the article is some specific emphasis on the fact of geopolitical importance of the transforming Middle East for the South Caucasus and Armenia, in particular. Materials and methods. Involving strategic documents, official statements, discourse analysis, and expert interviews, the study evaluates Armenia’s multi-vector foreign policy since its independence (1991) and explores its capacity for strategic maneuvering or geopolitical realignment amid systemic changes. The paper applies neorealist theory, particularly the black box concept, to assess Armenia’s adaptation strategies, including its efforts to position itself as a regional connectivity hub between East-West and North-South transport corridors. Methodologically, the research employs discourse analysis, scenario modeling, and trade/economic indicators, as well as the expert interviews. Results. The article examines the emerging geopolitical landscape of the region after the Artsakh War and the Ukrainian crisis. The analysis of key players (Russia, Turkey, USA, EU) and their interests identifies the main factors of change, which in turn largely determine Armenia’s foreign policy course. The study focuses on strategic documents, official statements, discourse analysis, and expert interviews to determine Armenia’s strategic priorities. The concept of a multi-vector foreign policy that Armenia has pursued since gaining independence in 1991 is also considered. Based on theoretical approaches to the study of foreign policy planning of small states, the work assesses the possibilities for strategic maneuver or ‘geopolitical choice’ in the changing world order. The article refers to the neorealist theory of the ‘black box’, arguing that in the conditions of the new reality, Armenia seeks to adapt and ensure its own security, and position itself as a connecting node between the East-West and North-South transport corridors.

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