Миграция, обусловленная изменением климата, в дельте реки Меконг во Вьетнаме — вызовы для устойчивого развития региона
https://doi.org/10.22162/2619-0990-2025-80-4-821-835
Аннотация
Введение. Дельта Меконга во Вьетнаме является ключевым сельскохозяйственным регионом, жизненно важным для национальной продовольственной безопасности. В последние годы регион столкнулся со значительной миграцией населения, вызванной экономическими трудностями и последствиями изменения климата, такими как засухи, засоление почв и экстремальные погодные явления. Настоящее исследование направлено на изучение взаимосвязи между изменением климата и миграцией в дельте Меконга, а также ее влияния на устойчивое развитие региона. Методы. Используя политико-экологический подход, исследование анализирует количественные и качественные данные из Переписи населения и жилищ 2019 г. и Годового отчета о состоянии экономики дельты Меконга 2022 г. Оценены миграционные тенденции, демографические изменения и показатели регионального развития для понимания влияния экологических стрессоров на перемещение населения. Результаты. Результаты показывают, что изменение климата является главным фактором миграции, влияя на демографическую структуру, трудовые ресурсы и долгосрочные возможности развития региона. Более 1,3 млн человек покинули дельту Меконга за последнее десятилетие, что создает вызовы для демографической стабильности и социально-экономической устойчивости. Выводы. Рекомендуется укрепление политики устойчивого развития с учетом адаптации к изменению климата и повышение качества и потенциала местных человеческих ресурсов. Эти меры направлены на стабилизацию миграционных процессов, продвижение инклюзивного развития и обеспечение климатоустойчивого роста в дельте Меконга.
Об авторах
Фан Тхи Фыонг АньВьетнам
кандидат наук (политология), преподаватель
Данг Тхи Минь Фыонг
Вьетнам
PhD (История), преподаватель
Нго Минь Хьеп
Вьетнам
PhD (История), сотрудник исследовательского института
Нгуен Тхи Туй
Вьетнам
PhD (История), преподаватель
Буй Тхи Хуен
Вьетнам
PhD (История), преподаватель
Список литературы
1. Ardiansyah, Putri 2011 — Ardiansyah F., Putri D. Risk and resilience in three Southeast Asian cross-border areas: The Greater Mekong sub-region, the Heart of Borneo, and the Coral Triangle. On: WordPress.com. On Sustainability, Commodities & Energy. Publications of Fitrian Ardiansyah. Posted on 23 February 2011. Available at: http://fitrianardiansyah.wordpress.com/2011/02/23/risk-and-resilience-in-three-southeast-asian-cross-border-areas-the-greater-mekong-sub-region-the-heart-of-borneo-and-the-coral-triangle/ (accessed: 20 March 2025). (In Eng.)
2. Bates 2002 — Bates D. C. Environmental refugees? Classifying human migrations caused by environmental change. Population and Environment. 2002. Vol. 23. No. 5. Pp. 465–477. DOI: 10.1023/a:1015186001919 (accessed: 20 March 2025). (In Eng.)
3. Berlemann, Tran 2020 — Berlemann M., Tran T. X. Climate-related hazards and internal migration empirical evidence for rural Vietnam. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change. 2020. Vol. 4. Pp. 385–409. (In Eng.) DOI: 10.1007/s41885-020-00062-3
4. Black et al. 2011 — Black R., Adger W. N., Arnell N. W., Dercon S., Geddes A., Thomas D. The effect of environmental change on human migration. Global Environmental Change. 2011. Vol. 21. Suppl. 1. Pp. S3–S11. (In Eng.). DOI: 10.106/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.001
5. Brown 2008 — Brown O. Migration and Climate Change. International Organization for Migration, 2008. 61 p. On: UN iLibrary. Available at: https://www.un-ilibrary.org/content/books/9789213630235 (accessed: 23 October 2025). (In Eng.)
6. Castles 2002 — Castles S. Environmental Change and Forced Migration: Making Sense of the Debate (UNHCR. The UN Refugee Agency. Working Paper No. 70). Oxford: University of Oxford, 2002. 15 p. (In Eng.)
7. Climate Change 1990 — Houghton J. T., Jenkins G. J., Ephraums J. J. (eds.) Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge: The Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge, 1990. 410 p. (In Eng.)
8. Dasgupta et al. 2007 — Dasgupta S., Benoit L., Craig M., David W., Jianping Y. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136). Washington: World Bank, 2007. 51 p. (In Eng.)
9. Döös 1997 — Döös B. R. Can large-scale environmental migrations be predicted? Global Environmental Change. 1997. Vol. 7. No. 1. Pp. 41–61. (In Eng.). DOI: 10.1016/S0959-3780(96)00037-4
10. Dun 2009 — Dun O. Linkages between Flooding, Migration and Resettlement: Viet Nam Case Study Report for EACH-FOR Project. Bonn: United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), 2009. 24 p. (In Eng.)
11. El-Hinnawi 1985 — El-Hinnawi E. Environmental Refugees. United Nations Environment Programme. Nairobi: UNEP, 1985. 41 p. (In Eng.)
12. Entzinger, Scholten 2016 — Entzinger H., Scholten P. Adapting to Climate Change through Migration: A Case Study of the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta. Geneva: International Organization for Migration, 2016. 60 p. (In Eng.)
13. Gray, Mueller 2012a — Gray C., Mueller V. Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2012. Vol. 109. No. 16. Pp. 6000–6005. (In Eng.). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1115944109
14. Gray, Mueller 2012b — Gray C., Mueller V. Droughts and population mobility in rural Ethiopia. World Development. 2012. Vol. 40. No. 1. Pp. 134–145. (In Eng.). DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.05.023
15. Halliday 2006 — Halliday T. Migration, risk, and liquidity constraints in El Salvador. Economic Development and Cultural Change. 2006. Vol. 54. No. 4. Pp. 893–925. (In Eng.)
16. Huang et al. 2003 — Huang C. C., Zhao S., Pang J., Zhou Q., Chen S., Li P., Ding M. Climatic aridity and the relocations of the Zhou culture in the southern loess plateau of China. Climatic Change. 2003. Vol. 61. Pp. 361–378. (In Eng.) DOI: 10.1023/b:clim.0000004550.82862.72
17. Hunter 2005 — Hunter L. M. Migration and environmental hazards. Population and Environment. 2005. Vol. 26. No. 4. Pp. 273–302. (In Eng.). DOI: 10.1007/s11111-005-3343-x
18. Hunter et al. 2015 — Hunter L. M., Luna J. K., Norton R. M. Environmental dimensions of migration. Annual Review of Sociology. 2015. Vol. 41. Pp. 377–397. (In Eng.). DOI: 10.1146/annurev-soc-073014-112223
19. Huong Mai 2022 — Huong Mai. Migration and differences in living standards are big challenges for the Mekong Delta. On: Nguoi Lao Dong (online newspaper). Posted on 2 August 2022. Available at: https://laodong.vn/xa-hoi/tinh-trang-di-cu-su-chenh-lech-ve-muc-song-la-thach-thuc-lon-cho-dbscl-1075999.ldo (accessed: 20 March 2025). (In Viet.)
20. Huy 2012 — Huy H. T. Modelling Migration Flows in the Mekong River Delta Region (CAS Discussion Paper No. 81). On: University of Antwerp, MediaLibrary. 2012. Available at: https://medialibrary.uantwerpen.be/oldcontent/container2626/files/CAS%20en%20ASEAN/CAS81.pdf (accessed: 20 March 2025). (In Eng.)
21. Jordan 1994 — Jordan A. [Review] Myers N. Ultimate Security: The Environmental Basis of Political Stability. International Affairs. 1994. Vol. 70. No. 3. Pp. 557–558. (In Eng.). DOI: 10.2307/2623757
22. Kavanagh, Lonergan 1992 — Kavanagh B., Lonergan S. Environmental Degradation, Population Displacement and Global Security: An Overview of the Issues (RSC/CGCP-IR92-1; CE-04592). Ottawa: Royal Society of Canada, 1992. On: Office of Scientific and Technical Information. Available at: https://www.osti.gov/etdeweb/biblio/7005450 (accessed: 20 March 2025). (In Eng.)
23. Koubi et al. 2016 — Koubi V., Spilker G., Schaffer L., Böhmelt T. The role of environmental perceptions in migration decision-making: Evidence from both migrants and non-migrants in five developing countries. Population and Environment. 2016. Vol. 38. Pp. 134–163. (In Eng.). DOI: 10.1007/s11111-016-0253-6
24. Lan Anh 2016 — Lan Anh. At risk of being submerged before 2030. How does Ho Chi Minh City act? On: Environmental Economics (online journal). 2016. Available at: https://kinhtemoitruong.vn/nguy-co-bi-nhan-chim-truoc-nam-2030-tphcm-hanh-dong-nhu-the-nao-62130.html (accessed: 20 March 2025). (In Viet.)
25. Lam et al. 2022 — Lam T. Tr. L., Nguyen Ng. Th., Nguyen H. Ng. Migration — the problem that needs to be resolved to make the Mekong Delta Region a worth living place for people. On: Digital Economy Knowledge Newsletter. University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City (UEH). 2022. Available at: https://future.ueh.edu.vn/chi-tiet-knowlege/podcast-di-cu-van-de-can-duoc-giai-quyet-de-khu-vuc-dong-bang-song-cuu-long-tro-thanh-noi-dang-song-cho-nguoi-dan/ (accessed: 20 March 2025). (In Viet.)
26. Margulis et al. 2010 — Margulis S., Hughes G., Schneider R., Pandey K., Narain U., Kemeny T. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Synthesis Report (Report No. 70267). On: World Bank Group. Climate Policy & Finance (CPF). 2010. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2011/06/06/economics-adaptation-climate-change (accessed: 20 March 2025). (In Eng.)
27. McLeman, Smit 2006 — McLeman R., Smit B. Migration as an adaptation to climate change. Climatic Change. 2006. Vol. 76. Pp. 31–53. (In Eng.). DOI: 10.1007/s10584-005-9000-7
28. Mekong Delta Climate 2009 — Mekong Delta Climate Change Forum 2009 (12–13November 2009). Forum Report. Vol. 1. ICEM, 2009. 83 p. On: International Centre for Environmental Management. 2009. Available at: http://www.icem.com.au/02_contents/06_materials/06-mdcc-page.htm (accessed: 20 March 2025). (In Eng.)
29. Meze-Hausken 2000 — Meze-Hausken E. Migration caused by climate change: How vulnerable are people in dryland areas? Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 2000. Vol. 5. Pp. 379–406. (In Eng.). DOI: 10.1023/a:1026570529614
30. Myers, Slack, Singelmann 2008 — Myers C. A., Slack T., Singelmann J. Social vulnerability and migration in the wake of disaster: The case of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Population & Environment. 2008. Vol. 29. Pp. 271–291. (In Eng.). DOI: 10.1007/s11111-008-0072-y
31. Nguyen, Raabe, Grote 2015 — Nguyen L. D., Raabe K., Grote U. Rural–urban migration, household vulnerability, and welfare in Vietnam. World Development. 2015. Vol. 71. Pp. 79–93. (In Eng.). DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.11.002
32. Oanh, Truong 2017 — Oanh L. T. K., Truong L. M. Correlation between climate change impacts and migration decisions in Vietnamese Mekong Delta. International Journal of Innovative Science, Engineering & Technology. 2017. Vol. 4. No. 8. Pp. 2348–7968. (In Eng.)
33. Padilla 2011 — Padilla K. The Impacts of Climate Change on the Mekong Delta (ICE Case Studies 265. December 2011). On: The Mandala Projects. Available at: https://mandalaprojects.com/ice/ice-cases/mekong-migration.htm (accessed: 20 March 2025). (In Eng.)
34. Phu 2022 — Phu K. “Excess and shortage of human resources” — the bottleneck in attracting investment to the Mekong Delta. On: Investor (electronic magazine). 2022. Available at: https://nhadautu.vn/thua-va-thieu-nhan-luc-diem-nghen-trong-thu-hut-dau-tu-vao-dbscl-d68605.html (accessed: 20 March 2025). (In Viet.)
35. Raleigh 2011 — Raleigh C. A. The search for safety: The effects of conflict, poverty and ecological influences on migration in the developing world. Global Environmental Change. 2011. Vol. 21. Suppl. 1. Pp. S82–S93. (In Eng.). DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.08.008.
36. Results 2019 — Results of the Population and Housing Census 01/4/2019. Press release. On: United Nations Viet Nam (website). Posted on 18 December 2019. Available at: https://vietnam.un.org/vi/28931-k%E1%BA%BFt-qu%E1%BA%A3-t%E1%BB%95ng-%C4%91i… (accessed: 20 March 2025). (In Eng.)
37. Rigaud et al. 2018 — Rigaud K., Jones B., Bergmann J., Clement V., Ober K., Schewe J., Adamo S., McCusker B., Heuser S., Midgley A. Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration. Washington, DC: World Bank. 2018. On: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29461 (accessed: 20 March 2025). (In Eng.)
38. Statistical Yearbook 2023 — Niên giám Thống kê Việt Nam năm 2022 (= Statistical Yearbook of Vietnam 2022). Hanoi: Thống kê, 2023. 1268 p. (In Viet. and Eng.)
39. Thuy, Nam 2015 — Thuy L. N., Nam P. D. Impacts of climate change on agricultural production and migration of farmer. Sociology. 2015. No. 1 (129). Pp. 82–92. (In Viet.). DOI: 10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2017-0059
40. Trinh 2021 — Trinh T. Tr. The Effects of Climate Change on Rural-Urban Migration in the Mekong Delta, Viet Nam [unpublished doctoral dissertation]. Minato, Tokyo: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), 2021. (In Eng.)
41. Tyson et al. 2002 — Tyson P. D., Lee-Thorp J., Holmgren K., Thackeray J. F. Changing gradients of climate change in southern Africa during the past millennium: Implications for population movements. Climatic Change. 2002. Vol. 52. Pp. 129–135. (In Eng.). DOI: 10.1023/a:1013099104598
42. VCCI & Fulbright 2020 — VCCI & Fulbright. Annual Mekong Delta Economic Report 2020. Can Tho: Can Tho University, 2020. XLV, 302 p. (In Eng.)
43. VCCI & Fulbright 2023 — VCCI & Fulbright. Annual Mekong Delta Economic Report 2023. Can Tho: Can Tho University, 2023. Pp. 124–137. (In Eng.)
44. Vo 2020 — Vo H. D. Immigrants in VMD: Many problems arise. On: The Saigon Times. Available at: https://thesaigontimes.vn/di-dan-o-dbscl-nhieu-van-de-dat-ra/ (accessed: 31 October 2020). (In Viet.)
45. Warner et al. 2009 — Warner K., Ehrhart C., Sherbinin A., Adamo S., Chai-Onn T. In Search of Shelter: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration. Chatelaine (Switzerland): Care International, 2009. 26 p. (In Eng.)
46. Warner et al. 2012 — Warner K., Afifi T., Henry K., Rawe T., Smith C., de Sherbinin A. Where the Rain Falls: Climate Change, Food and Livelihood Security, and Migration. Global Policy Report of the Where the Rain Falls Project. Bonn: CARE France & UNU-EHS, 2012. 142 p . (In Eng.)
Рецензия
Для цитирования:
Фыонг Ань Ф., Минь Фыонг Д., Минь Хьеп Н., Тхи Туй Н., Тхи Хуен Б. Миграция, обусловленная изменением климата, в дельте реки Меконг во Вьетнаме — вызовы для устойчивого развития региона. Oriental Studies. 2025;18(4):821-835. https://doi.org/10.22162/2619-0990-2025-80-4-821-835
For citation:
Phuong Anh P., Minh Phuong D., Minh Hiep N., Thi Tuy N., Thi Huyen B. Climate Change-Related Migration in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam — Challenges to Regional Sustainable Development. Oriental Studies. 2025;18(4):821-835. https://doi.org/10.22162/2619-0990-2025-80-4-821-835
JATS XML
Контент доступен под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.






































